In the end, the U.S. economy is Tied Up by three troubles: poor employment, tariffs driving prices up high, and everyone being cautious with their spending. This is fundamentally a chain reaction caused by short-sighted policies.

The job market is gradually dragging down the consumption base. In July, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, with only 73,000 new jobs created, and previous data has also been significantly revised downward. Worse still, fewer people are willing to work, and the actual unemployment pressure is much greater than the official figures. Many industries are laying off employees, and the income expectations for ordinary families are becoming increasingly bleak.

The tariff policy has exacerbated inflation. Trump raised the steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, and the number of taxed items increased by more than 400, with the effective tax rate soaring to 17%. Yale University calculated that each household would lose $2,800, with low-income families suffering even more. Prices have risen on everything from shoes to trucks, and Goldman Sachs predicts that the tariff costs consumers will bear will rise from 22% to 67%, and inflation is not yet over.

The consumption of this engine is about to stall. In April, personal consumption expenditures only increased by 0.2%, and sales of RVs, air tickets, and concert tickets have been sluggish. Fitch stated that this year's consumption growth is expected to drop from 2.2% to 1.9%, and it may get worse later. Everyone's savings have decreased from 21 trillion to 10 trillion, and they are running out quickly. The growth rate of credit card debt has also dropped significantly, clearly indicating that people are hesitant to spend money.

In the end, it is still the policy that traps itself: trying to protect industries through tariffs resulted in increased costs for businesses; attempting to reverse the trade deficit has instead left ordinary citizens with thinner wallets; aiming to reshape the industrial chain has thrown the global supply chain into chaos. Now, tariffs have turned inflation into a "poor tax," poor employment has reduced incomes, and weak consumption has created a vicious cycle, leading the U.S. economy toward stagflation. Fitch has adjusted next year's growth rate to 1.7%, which is not just a number change, but essentially a score for the "America First" policy - the bubble of prosperity inflated by tariffs is about to be burst by reality. #加密市场反弹# #美联储7月会议纪要#