Crypto market overall rise analysis: Is alt season coming or is it a flash in the pan?

Recently, the crypto market has welcomed a widespread rise. After Bitcoin fell below $100,000 on June 22, the market experienced a brief panic, followed by a new round of significant rebound. This rise not only involves mainstream tokens like BTC, SOL, and ETH, but many long-dormant altcoins have also shown impressive performance.

In order to gain a deeper understanding of the actual market situation, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the trading data of 403 tokens, attempting to capture the true pulse of the market.

Analyze the USDT spot trading pairs based on a certain trading platform, combined with basic information such as token classification and market capitalization. The time range is from June 22, 2025, to July 15, 2025, and the price change is calculated based on the starting and ending prices during this period.

94.8% tokens rise, average increase of 30%

Data shows that among 403 analyzed objects, 382 tokens are in a rising state, accounting for 94.8%. The average rise is 30.38%, with a median of 25.92%. Compared to the rebound in April, this rebound momentum is stronger.

Among the rising tokens, 7 have increased by over 100%, with the highest reaching 335%. 34 tokens have a rise between 50% and 100%, accounting for 8.4%. Most tokens have increased by less than 50%, accounting for 84.6%. This round of market trend shows a characteristic of broad-based increases, with slight signs of "alt season". It is worth noting that 307 tokens have risen more than BTC's 15.31%, and most tokens have finally outperformed Bitcoin.

However, 20 tokens have fallen against the trend and performed poorly.

The top 20 tokens by rise exhibit the following characteristics:

• Market Cap: Mainly concentrated in small-cap (<100 million) or mid-cap (100 million-1 billion) categories, with only 3 that have a market cap of over 1 billion.
• Category: Primarily focused on MEME, AI, and DeFi, with 4 infrastructure projects also entering the top 20.
• Ecosystem: Mainly distributed across the three major public chains of Ethereum, BSC, and Solana.

MEME leads the way, GameFi emerges strongly

From the performance of the sectors, MEME performed the best with an average rise of 42.2%. Infrastructure followed closely with a rise of 40.98%. Surprisingly, GameFi-related tokens performed well, with an average rise of 35.15%. DEX, AI, and smart contract platforms followed. The highly anticipated RWA-related tokens had a mediocre rise of only 11.94%. Wallet-related tokens had an average drop of 3.09%.

main public chain ecosystem performance

The Solana ecosystem leads with a rise of 39.41%. A certain emerging Layer 2 ecosystem token comes in second with a rise of 33.86%. Following closely are another Layer 2 (31.42%), Ethereum (31.14%), and BSC (28.41%). Avalanche ecosystem-related tokens perform moderately, with an average rise of only 10.86%.

The correlation between market capitalization and rise is low.

The rise in the prices of large and small market cap tokens is not significantly different. Tokens with a market cap of over $1 billion have an average rise of 33.93%, while small cap tokens (less than $100 million) have an average rise of 30.41%, and tokens between $100 million and $1 billion have an average rise of 29.45%. Small and mid-cap tokens remain the market's main force, with a total of 348. This round of increases has achieved a widespread rise, which is not closely related to market cap size.

Comparison of New and Old Token Performance

Tokens launched in 2024 performed the best, with an average rise of 42.76%. Tokens from 2023 came in second, with a rise of 34.57%. Tokens launched in 2019, 2025, and 2018 also performed well. Tokens launched in 2017 and during 2021-2022 had relatively low rises. Analyzing the data from April, tokens launched in 2017 consistently ranked at the bottom, which may indicate that early projects are gradually losing market attention.

Is the alt season really here?

Despite the obvious rise, the alt season doesn't seem to have truly arrived yet. Only 7 tokens have surpassed their 2024 highs, while 341 have failed to break past their previous highs. 38 tokens are still 90% away from their 2024 highs, 146 are more than 80% away, and 302 are more than 50% away. Most tokens need to rise at least another double to return to 2024 levels.

From this perspective, the alt season has great potential, but it is still unclear whether this rise is a flash in the pan or the beginning of a new bull market. Market participants need to remain vigilant and closely monitor subsequent developments.