Recently, the "Fed Watch" data released by the CME Group has sparked widespread follow in the market regarding the direction of the Fed's monetary policy. According to this report, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing. The data shows that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is only 14.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 85.9%.

Looking ahead to October, market expectations suggest that the Fed's trend of continuing to ease monetary policy may persist. The report indicates that the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in October has further decreased to 5.2%. Meanwhile, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 39.9%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points has reached 55.1%.

This data reflects that the market's expectations for the Fed to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in the coming months are heating up. If these expectations become a reality, it could have profound effects on global financial markets. However, it is important to note that this data only represents current market sentiment, and the actual policy direction will still need to wait for the Fed's official decisions.