Exploring the Resilience of Digital Assets in Turbulent Times

Introduction: The Great Test of Financial Markets

In June 2025, the global financial markets are undergoing an unprecedented stress test. Geopolitical conflicts are frequent, traditional safe-haven asset prices are soaring, yet Bitcoin displays remarkable stability around the $100,000 mark. This performance, which appears "desensitized" to geopolitical crises, reflects profound changes in the underlying logic of the crypto market. This article will analyze Bitcoin's survival strategy amidst macroeconomic turbulence from multiple perspectives.

1. The Weakening of the Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts: From Panic Amplification to Risk Isolation

1. The "dulling effect" of conflict impact

Recently, as the situation in the Middle East has worsened, Bitcoin only experienced a brief fluctuation before quickly stabilizing, in stark contrast to the severe volatility caused by past geopolitical conflicts. This improvement in resilience primarily stems from changes in market structure: the proportion of long-term holders has significantly increased, while the share of speculative positions has dropped to a multi-year low. Institutional investors have established a hedging system through the derivatives market, effectively cushioning the immediate impact of sudden events.

2. Redefining Risk Hedging Logic

The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being reinterpreted. In the current monetary policy environment, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds has significantly strengthened, making it more akin to a "liquidity hedge tool" rather than merely a safe-haven asset. Recently, when the cooling of U.S. Treasury bond auctions led to an increase in real interest rates, the reverse rise in Bitcoin prices validated this new characteristic.

3. Geopolitical risks' "targeted absorption"

Geopolitical conflicts have accelerated the process of de-dollarization, with some countries beginning to settle commodity transactions using Bitcoin. This penetration into the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into a rigid demand for Bitcoin. Data shows that the trading volume of cryptocurrencies in conflict areas has significantly increased following the events.

II. The Complex Game of Macroeconomic Cycles: The Dual Impact of Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation Relief

1. The certainty dividend of a shift in monetary policy

The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will soon start a rate-cutting cycle, which is directly reflected in the rising premiums of Bitcoin futures contracts. Historical data shows that before the start of a rate-cutting cycle, Bitcoin usually experiences significant gains, outperforming traditional safe-haven assets.

2. Structural relief of inflationary pressures

Core inflation indicators continue to decline, and the supply chain pressure index has dropped to pre-pandemic levels. This has weakened the anti-inflation narrative of Bitcoin, but unexpectedly highlighted its "growth-sensitive asset" attribute. Some large institutions have begun to incorporate Bitcoin into their growth stock valuation framework.

3. Opportunities Arising from the Divergence of Global Monetary Policies

The divergence of monetary policies among major economies has created new opportunities for cross-border capital flows. Data shows that the over-the-counter trading volume of cryptocurrencies in certain trade corridors has significantly increased during periods of heightened policy divergence.

3. Deep Transformation of Market Structure: From Retail Dominance to Institutional Pricing

1. The "deleveraging" of position structure

The proportion of hedging positions in the derivatives market has significantly increased, while the funding rate of perpetual contracts remains low and stable. This change has reduced the market's excessive reliance on leveraged funds, greatly decreasing the occurrence of extreme volatility events.

2. Optimization of liquidity structure

The number of bitcoins held by institutional investors has significantly increased, forming a natural price stabilizer. During recent geopolitical conflicts that triggered market panic, large buy orders near key price levels mainly came from institutional over-the-counter trading.

3. Integration of Valuation Systems

The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets is changing, and the market is beginning to reconstruct its valuation logic using traditional asset pricing models. The volatility of Bitcoin has approached the levels of some high-growth stocks.

4. Short-term Price Trend Analysis

Bitcoin is currently oscillating near key moving averages, with both bulls and bears evenly matched. A breakthrough of the 20-day moving average could trigger further upward movement, while a drop below the 50-day moving average may test the psychological level of $100,000. The 4-hour chart indicates a bearish bias in the short term, but strong support is expected around the $100,000 area.

5. Future Market Outlook

1. June to August: Consolidation and accumulation

The Federal Reserve's policy vacuum may lead to fluctuations in Bitcoin within a certain range. Pay attention to the policy signals from the July FOMC meeting; on the technical side, the 200-day moving average will provide important support. The impact of geopolitical conflicts still exists, but the increase in market depth has enhanced price stability.

2. September to November: potential rise

Historical seasonal patterns and potential shifts in monetary policy could drive Bitcoin prices further up. The peak of U.S. Treasury maturities may trigger changes in liquidity, becoming an important catalyst.

3. Risk Warning

Changes in regulatory policies may trigger short-term fluctuations, but in the long run, the trend towards compliance is expected to attract more traditional capital into the market. Investors should be wary of a potential pullback that may occur at the end of the year.

Conclusion: The Positioning of Bitcoin in the New Currency Order

At a time when the global monetary system is undergoing significant changes, Bitcoin is playing a dual role: it is both a beneficiary of the credit crisis in the old system and a participant in the infrastructure of the new order. Its price stability no longer solely comes from reduced volatility, but from its increasingly important role in connecting the real economy. In this era of uncertainty, Bitcoin is gradually proving its value and resilience.