Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report

Overview of BTC and ETH This Week

market performance

This week, the Crypto Assets market is showing an overall volatile trend:

Bitcoin failed to follow the rise of the US stock market and other risk markets this week, instead experiencing a decline. The main reason is the drop that occurred last weekend when market liquidity was weak, coupled with the movement of BTC from a well-known address this week, which sparked speculation about the last payout, leading to a downward trend.

Ethereum also followed the market trend and showed a downward movement this week, without any independent行情, but the decline was relatively smaller than that of Bitcoin. From the perspective of spot ETFs, funds continue to flow out, indicating that most investors currently have little interest in investing in Ethereum.

Important Events

1. Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cut in September

The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September, with the current discussion focusing on whether to cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Based on the economic data released this week, the market leans more towards the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut, which would be a cautious and defensive rate cut.

2. U.S. Economic Data

Several economic data released this week, including inflation expectations, CPI data, and the number of unemployment claims, were all better than expected, indicating that the resilience of the US economy is still present, which has reduced market expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

3. Geopolitical tensions

The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated again this week, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard attacking the US military base in Lebanon, and the United States increasing its military presence in the Middle East. Ukraine has intensified its attacks against Russia, even launching an assault on the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, exacerbating the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

4. A famous address BTC movement

This Wednesday, a transaction worth $2 billion of BTC occurred at a certain address, and the market generally believes this may be the last payment before testing. This news triggered a market downturn, but from another perspective, it also means that this long-term risk may come to an end.

Altcoin Overview This Week

overall performance

This week, the market sentiment index rose to 13%. Although this is an increase from last week's 9.2%, it still remains in the fear zone. The recovery in Altcoin sentiment is mainly due to its performance being stronger than BTC and ETH, which has led to a follow-up surge after last week's rebound. However, due to a lack of market hotspots and external factors influencing the market, there is intense competition between bulls and bears, resulting in less capital flowing into Altcoins, making it difficult for the follow-up surge to be sustained.

Overview of the Rise Ranking

The top five tokens with the highest gains this week are scattered across different tracks such as L1s, NFTs, ETH-L2, DXE, and cross-chain, showing no obvious sector concentration characteristics. However, the overall rebound is stronger than last week, with multiple projects beginning to catch up.

social media hotspot

This week, the most关注度 on social media is the L1s track, with related projects generally showing an upward trend, outperforming BTC and ETH. This may be a补涨 to last week's insufficient rebound.

Topic Tracking

According to weekly return rate statistics, the SocialFi track performed the best, while the AI track performed the worst.

The SocialFi track is dominated by TON, accounting for 94.19% of the market value. This week, a certain trading platform launched a TON mining project, and the positive news drove TON's strong rise, leading to outstanding performance across the entire track.

Most tokens in the AI track performed poorly this week, showing low market attention and capital flow. Despite the continuous decline in recent months, this track still maintains positive returns for the year.

Outlook for Next Week

1. Bitcoin: Improved U.S. economic data alleviates recession expectations, with the September rate cut expectation adjusted to 25 basis points. However, global geopolitical instability is increasing, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely before the Federal Reserve cuts rates.

2. Ethereum: Spot ETF funds continue to flow out, indicating insufficient attractiveness of the current price. It is expected to maintain a high correlation with Bitcoin and experience wide fluctuations.

3. Altcoin: Although there was a rebound this week, it lacks sustained upward momentum. It is expected that the rebound may end next week, and it will fluctuate in sync with the overall market.