Recently, there has been a notable trend in the financial markets: the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has significantly increased. According to the latest data, the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 85.9%, and in October, it has reached as high as 95.8%. This phenomenon inevitably brings to mind the situation on July 31, 2019, when the Federal Reserve first cut rates in response to the impacts of the trade war.

In the context of 2019, as the market had fully anticipated interest rate cuts by June, the U.S. stock market, especially technology stocks, experienced a "buy the expectation" trend between June and July. However, after the interest rate cut policy was officially implemented, the market actually experienced a correction.

If we compare the current cryptocurrency market to the tech stocks in the US stock market, then the period of August to September this year may show a completely different trend. The market is expected to no longer be calm, but rather may welcome a strong upward trend.

This expectation is mainly based on several factors: first, the connection between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets is becoming increasingly close, and the Federal Reserve's policy changes have a growing impact on it. Second, compared to 2019, the current maturity and institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market have significantly improved, and the response to macroeconomic policies may be more rational and sustained.

In addition, the recent increase in uncertainty factors facing the global economy may lead investors to view cryptocurrencies as one of the tools for hedging risks. If the Federal Reserve does indeed lower interest rates in the coming months, it could stimulate demand for risk assets, including mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

However, investors also need to be vigilant, as there may be discrepancies between market expectations and actual policies. Excessive optimism can lead to significant market fluctuations. Therefore, it is crucial to remain calm and rational during a potential "major counterattack."

Overall, the trends in the cryptocurrency market over the next few months are worth close attention. The Federal Reserve's policy direction, the global economic situation, and the developments within the cryptocurrency industry itself will all be key factors influencing the market's direction.