Ethereum rises strongly, Uniswap potential analysis

Recently, the price of Ethereum has performed brilliantly, with a rise of 48% within a month, driving the increase of the entire Ethereum ecosystem projects. Historical data shows that during rising periods, high-quality projects in the Ethereum ecosystem often produce a multiplier effect. Uniswap (UNI), as an important project within the Ethereum ecosystem, has risen by 28% in the past month. If the market continues, there may be further room for growth.

In addition to benefiting from the overall trend of Ethereum, UNI also has its own advantages, mainly reflected in three aspects: the regulatory environment may become more lenient, the project's business data performance is excellent, and there is a driving force behind the structural rise in token prices.

Regulatory Environment Analysis

Between 2021 and 2023, Uniswap faced certain regulatory uncertainties. In September 2021, a regulatory agency began investigating the marketing practices and investor services of Uniswap Labs. In August 2023, Uniswap won a collective lawsuit, with the court ruling that its protocol is primarily used for legitimate purposes.

From 2023 to 2024, regulatory pressure has increased. In April 2024, Uniswap Labs received an investigation notice from a regulatory agency regarding multiple allegations. Uniswap Labs subsequently submitted a detailed response document refuting these allegations.

Starting in 2025, signs of loosening in the regulatory environment began to appear. In February 2025, a regulatory agency announced the termination of its investigation into Uniswap Labs. Subsequently, Uniswap Labs was invited to participate in discussions on cryptocurrency regulation. In May of the same year, the U.S. Congress began discussing a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrency assets, providing clearer guidance for industry development.

Currently, Uniswap's token economic model no longer faces significant regulatory risks. With the new government coming to power, cryptocurrency regulatory policies are being adjusted in a direction that is more conducive to the development of the industry. As an important industry representative, Uniswap Labs has played an advisory role in this process and may welcome more favorable policies in the future.

Project Business Analysis

Uniswap is a leader in the decentralized exchange (DEX) space, with a total value locked (TVL) of $5.12 billion and a trading volume of $84.5 billion in the last 30 days, ranking second among DEXs. Its annual revenue reaches $929 million, and when calculated using traditional valuation methods, its price-to-earnings ratio is significantly lower than many traditional tech companies, indicating potential growth opportunities.

According to the Uniswap Foundation's Q1 2025 financial report, it holds a significant amount of cash and token assets, with a healthy financial condition, expected to last until January 2027.

In terms of token economics, Uniswap has been exploring new models. Although holding UNI tokens does not directly generate income at present, the project team is attempting to activate the "fee switch" function, which may make progress in the second half of 2025. In addition, the Layer 2 solution Unichain launched by Uniswap also provides new application scenarios for UNI, such as earning validator rewards through staking.

Token Market Performance

The current circulating market value of UNI is 4.2 billion USD, with a total market value of 6.7 billion USD. All tokens are in circulation, with approximately 37% locked in staking.

In the derivatives market, the contract open interest of UNI is $448 million, with an open interest to market cap ratio of approximately 10.6%. The long-short comparison is balanced, but large holders show a bullish tendency. As the Ethereum market strengthens, UNI's derivatives trading is also becoming increasingly active.

From the price trend, UNI and Ethereum show similar patterns in form, but the volatility is usually 2-3 times that of Ethereum. In the recent round of Ethereum rise, UNI's rise has temporarily lagged behind, which may indicate potential for catching up in the future.

Conclusion

As the regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry gradually becomes clearer, Uniswap, as a leading decentralized exchange in the industry, will have a profound impact on the entire sector. Uniswap Labs is actively involved in the formulation of regulatory rules, and in conjunction with the overall growth of the Ethereum ecosystem, UNI may welcome structural benefits.

Considering Uniswap's excellent business data, robust financial condition, and the new momentum brought to the token through initiatives like Unichain and the fee switch, UNI, as an important project within the Ethereum ecosystem, is worthy of investors' continued attention.