📉 Crypto Crossroads: Will Bitcoin Drop Before the Moonshot?

Bitcoin has returned to its weekly pivot, hovering cautiously ahead of a pivotal Fed announcement. With only a 5% chance priced in for a rate cut today, traders are watching closely—not for immediate action, but for signals pointing to a September shift.

But underneath the surface, market structure is turning more bearish. Both Bitcoin and top altcoins have been carving out lower highs and lower lows, setting the stage for a potential deeper correction before any meaningful upside.

🚨 Market Setups and Sentiment

Despite repeated shakeouts, there's still a mild long leverage bias across the board—a setup that often precedes downside pain. From a contrarian view, a short-heavy positioning going into the Fed would be more bullish, but retail seems misaligned for now.

Liquidation data from Hyblockcapital suggests pain points loom at $116,000 and $114,000—zones of high-probability liquidations. Meanwhile, upside liquidation targets reach as far as $130,000, reinforcing its status as a magnet level if bulls regain control.

📊 Indicators Flash Mixed Signals

The Biyond Atlas—a key overbought/oversold tool—continues its worrying climb, rising 6 points daily, but still not yet flashing extreme signals. Paired with the Vanguard (green on the weekly), this hints at a possible "pump & dump" setup before the market cools off.

If Bitcoin pushes into the red zone while Atlas climbs higher, it may be a prime exit signal for risk-conscious traders.

🧭 Two Key Scenarios on the Table

Scenario 1:

Bitcoin makes a clean breakout above $120,000, accelerates past $127,000, and targets the $130,000+ range. This move would align with the Crypto Total Market Cap (CTMC) topping around $4.66 trillion, before a corrective phase back to $3.60 trillion.

Scenario 2:

The bearish pressure early in the week gains traction. Bitcoin slips to the $114,000 region, potentially filling the CME futures gap. This retracement would drag CTMC down to $3.60 trillion earlier than expected—clearing out leveraged longs—before bouncing back towards $130K later in the year.

🧠 On-Chain and Technical Clues

• 117,600 has become a key pivot—watch for a 12-hour close below this for bearish confirmation.
• Whale entries around $75,000 mean large players are still hungry for a $130K–$140K profit window.
• Unrealized profits across the market are at record highs, signaling a likely push by big players to 'pump and dump' before exiting safely.
• MACD divergence suggests CTMC could still fall to $3.60T before reversing.
• Biyond Challenger is nearing an 8-hour buy signal—supporting the idea that a short-term drop may precede the next rally.

🧾 Final Take

If Scenario 2 plays out and we tag $114K first, the downside may be more limited than previously expected. That dip could reset the board, set up stronger technical footing, and ultimately send the market surging beyond $5 trillion in total cap—with Bitcoin climbing toward a $150,000 target.

The next 24–48 hours could determine whether this is just another dip—or the calm before the crypto storm.

Stay sharp. This isn't just a market correction—it could be the launchpad for the next parabolic leg.

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