Trump Dinner Invitation: Sincere Gratitude or Deliberate Marketing?

The "TRUMP DINNER" hosted by Trump will take place on May 22 in Washington. It is reported that this event will invite the top 220 TRUMP token holders to attend, among which the top 25 token holders will have the opportunity to participate in a private VIP reception with Trump and enjoy a special VIP tour of the White House the next day. Trump himself will attend the dinner as a guest, and this event does not involve any fundraising.

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This news is reminiscent of the recent $300 million unlocking of TRUMP tokens: on April 18, TRUMP unlocked 40 million tokens, worth about $300 million, or 20% of the total circulation. This timing coincidences have sparked speculation in the market: the front foot has just unlocked a huge amount of tokens, and the back foot has feasted large holders, is this a thanksgiving reward, or is there another purpose?

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After the dinner news was announced, the price of TRUMP quickly rose, reaching a high of $14.37, and as of the time of writing, the quote is $12.37, an increase of over 33%.

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Market whales act quickly

After the dinner news was released, market monitoring data showed that an investor spent 5 million USDC to purchase 407,467 TRUMP tokens at a price of $12.27.

More notably, the investor then sold off all holdings for a total price of $5.73 million in less than 30 minutes, making a profit of $731,800 in a short period.

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Another long-term TRUMP liquidity provider withdrew liquidity from two wallets at around 8 a.m. on the same day, recovering 211,977 TRUMP worth $2.76 million and 18,376 SOL worth $2.76 million. Both wallets are currently among the top 220 holders, making them eligible for dinner invitations. It is understood that the investor bought 332,424 TRUMP (about $802,000) at a price of $2.41 on the day of the token's listing and provided liquidity. At the peak of the price, these tokens were worth more than $24 million.

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However, not all investors have seized the moment. On-chain analysis data shows that a TRUMP token investor liquidated his position about 20 hours before the release of the positive news, making a profit of only $483,000. If the position had been held until the news was announced, the theoretical return could have reached $4.28 million.

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Can the TRUMP token reverse its decline?

From a long-term performance perspective, the trend of the TRUMP token is disappointing. Although the price once surged to over $75 on the day of issuance, it quickly fell back after investors noticed the highly concentrated token distribution and the short exercise period. After the token was launched on January 17, its market capitalization reached approximately $15 billion, but by January 20, it plummeted by more than 50%. Considering that 80% of the supply was allocated to founders and related entities controlled by Trump, the current market capitalization of $2.6 billion raises questions about its reasonableness.

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Although Trump's dinner event temporarily boosted trading volume, the long-term trend of token prices is difficult to fundamentally change because of a single dinner. The current surge is mainly due to a combination of market speculation and Trump's personal influence. In the long run, unless TRUMP can effectively address investors' concerns about large-scale token unlocks, it will be difficult to reverse its long-standing weak performance.

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Trump's NFT Strategy

According to the official terms of TRUMP, if Trump fails to attend the dinner or the event is canceled, eligible token holders will receive a limited edition NFT as compensation. This arrangement indicates that Trump is not only focused on the TRUMP token but is also continuing to promote his NFT project.

In fact, Trump began trying to promote NFTs as early as his campaign. On May 8 of this year, he hosted an NFT dinner at his private resort in Palm Beach, Florida, inviting buyers who purchased at least 47 "MugShot Edition" ( NFTs. This series consists of 100,000 NFTs, of which 99,000 are available for public purchase at a price of $99 each. Purchasing 47 of them for ) approximately $4,653 ( grants the opportunity to dine with Trump. At the event, Trump expressed support for cryptocurrencies, promising to end the U.S. government's hostile policies toward digital assets, which starkly contrasts with his previous criticism of cryptocurrencies.

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Trump's foray into the NFT space can be traced back to December 2022, when he issued 45,000 digital trading cards, including images of him as a superhero, an astronaut, a western sheriff, and more. These NFTs are minted on the blockchain network, and the standard version costs $99 each. Customers who purchase 45 cards will be eligible for admission to the NFT dinner. Market data shows that all 45,000 NFTs were sold out in about 12 hours. In March 2023, when Trump faced a legal investigation, the price of these NFTs soared to a high of nearly $1,700.

On April 19, 2023, the Trump team launched the second series of digital trading cards, maintaining a price of $99 each, and sold out within 5 hours, with total revenue reaching $4.6 million.

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Conclusion

Trump is simultaneously operating the TRUMP token and NFT projects. Whether these digital assets can maintain their popularity is not the most critical issue; the short-term price surge and media attention have already brought him considerable profit and exposure. In the field of digital assets, Trump seems to have mastered the method of creating market hotspots using his influence.