The Era of Hyper-Speculative Capitalism Has Arrived: Liquidity Dominates the Market

The current global economic environment is undergoing profound changes, and we are entering an era of hyper-speculative capitalism. In this era, traditional economic theories and market laws seem no longer applicable, replaced by liquidity-driven market behavior.

This new trend is reflected in multiple aspects:

1. The United States maintains a GDP deficit of up to 7% even during full employment.
2. The interest rate is at a high of 5%, yet the price of Bitcoin is close to its historical high.
3. Even during periods of good economic performance, stimulus policies continue.

These phenomena indicate that the market no longer reflects fundamentals, but rather reflects liquidity conditions more.

Bitcoin: A Representation Driven by Liquidity

Bitcoin's performance is a typical case of liquidity dominating the market. Currently, Bitcoin no longer relies on a weak economy or a rate-cutting environment; rather, a stable macro environment combined with abundant liquidity may be its best breeding ground.

The current global M2 money supply remains high, providing ample upward momentum for Bitcoin. Market predictions suggest that if Bitcoin rises by 10%, over $13 billion in short positions will be liquidated, further confirming the abundance of market liquidity.

Based on historical data analysis, Bitcoin usually peaks 525 to 530 days after the halving. According to this calculation, late September 2025 could be a key time point, when the price of Bitcoin may reach the range of $135,000 to $150,000.

However, this optimistic expectation still faces potential risks from tightening macro policies. Investors need to closely monitor the M2 money supply data in mid-September, as it may indicate the direction of market Liquidity.

Global Economy: Policy Divergence and Uncertainty

In the era of hyper-speculative capitalism, the global economy presents a complex and ever-changing pattern:

1. The momentum of economic growth in the United States has明显放缓, and consumer behavior has become cautious. Housing affordability has fallen to a historic low, with 53% of middle-class income spent on housing expenses, setting a new high.

2. Global central bank policies have diverged. Countries like Japan and Canada have kept interest rates unchanged, while Chile and South Africa have cut rates early due to slowing inflation.

3. The economic performance of the Eurozone is mixed; the GDP in the second quarter was slightly above expectations, but core inflation remains high.

4. The momentum of China's economic recovery has weakened, which may affect regional demand and supply chains.

5. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for more economic data to support decisions on future interest rate directions.

Reconstruction of Trade Patterns

The new tariff agreement between the US and Japan reflects significant changes in the global trade landscape:

1. The United States imposes a 15% tariff on imported goods from Japan, higher than the previous level but lower than the threatened 25%.

2. Japan has committed to invest $550 billion in the United States, but the specific terms remain unclear.

3. The agreement has raised concerns among American automakers about unfair competition.

4. The lack of a formally signed treaty raises questions about the stability of future trade negotiations.

The trade agreement reached between the UK and India demonstrates the importance of non-US markets.

1. The UK has significantly reduced export tariffs to India, and exports are expected to grow by 60% by 2040.

2. India's auto import tariff has been reduced from 100% to 10%, but there are quota restrictions.

3. 50% of India's export goods will enter the UK market tax-free.

4. The agreement reflects global trends: countries are seeking diversified trade partnerships.

New Trends in the Labor Market

The job market is also showing new characteristics:

1. The unemployment rate for recent university graduates has reached a ten-year high, with the gap in employment between them and their non-graduate peers narrowing.

2. Policy uncertainty suppresses companies' willingness to hire, especially for technical positions.

3. The decrease in employee turnover rate reflects a weakening of liquidity in the job market.

4. The shortage of skilled workers has eased, which may affect the innovation momentum in high-growth industries.

In this era of hyper-speculative capitalism, investors and policymakers need to adapt to new market logic and flexibly respond to the challenges posed by liquidity fluctuations and policy uncertainties. Closely monitoring global money supply, changes in trade policy, and dynamics in the job market will be key to grasping market trends.