Can ETH Micro Strategy Replicate BTC's Success? A Few Thoughts

Recently, the Ethereum version of "MicroStrategy" has attracted market attention. Can it replicate the successful model of Bitcoin MicroStrategy? Here are a few personal opinions:

1. The ETH MicroStrategy has indeed drawn on the successful experience of BTC MicroStrategy, and in the short term may attract more U.S. stock companies to follow suit, forming a positive cycle. Regardless of how the main players in the U.S. stock market operate, traditional institutional funds and retail investors buying ETH as a reserve asset have indeed helped Ethereum break free from its long-term sluggish state. This verifies that ETH no longer relies entirely on narratives within the cryptocurrency circle and has begun to attract external incremental funds.

2. BTC is closer to the positioning of "digital gold" as a reserve asset, with relatively stable value. In contrast, ETH is essentially a "productive asset," with its value related to multiple factors such as the usage rate of the Ethereum network, Gas fee income, and ecological development. This means that ETH has greater volatility and uncertainty as a reserve asset. If there are technical security issues in the Ethereum ecosystem, or if there is regulatory pressure on DeFi, Staking, etc., the risks and variables faced by ETH will far exceed those of BTC. Therefore, the narrative logic of BTC micro-strategy can be referenced, but the market pricing valuation logic may not be consistent.

3. The Ethereum ecosystem has a more mature DeFi infrastructure and richer narrative extensibility compared to BTC. Through the staking mechanism, ETH can generate about 3-4% native yield, equivalent to the "on-chain interest-bearing treasury bonds" in the crypto world. Institutions recognize this characteristic, which in the short term is unfavorable for providing various Layer 2 solutions for BTC to generate yield on native assets, but in the long term may stimulate the accelerated development of infrastructure within the BTC ecosystem.

4. This round of micro-strategy craze has essentially reshaped the narrative direction of cryptocurrency. In the past, project teams primarily told technical narratives to VCs and retail investors, but now they need to tell stories to Wall Street. The key difference is that Wall Street does not buy into pure concepts; they require real user growth, revenue models, and market size. This forces crypto projects to shift from a "technology narrative orientation" to a "business value orientation."

5. The US companies participating in this round of microstrategy concepts are mostly traditional businesses struggling with growth, needing to integrate cryptocurrency to find breakthroughs. Their bet on crypto assets largely takes advantage of the "arbitrage window" before the US drives industry transformation to mature regulation. This involves multiple gray areas such as accounting standards, SEC disclosure requirements, and tax treatment.

MicroStrategy's success largely benefits from the BTC bull market dividend, but as a replicator, they may not have the same luck and operational ability. Therefore, the current market heat is essentially a gamble and trial-and-error, and investors need to be cautious of the risks.

This round of micro-strategy frenzy is more like a "big drill" for cryptocurrency to enter the mainstream financial system. Regardless of success or failure, being able to pull ETH out of the narrative fatigue is a meaningful attempt.