Bitcoin Price Breaks Above $100,000 Again — What’s the Outlook for 2025?

After three months, BTC once again surpassed the $100,000 mark on May 8, 2025, reaching a high of $107,100. Behind this milestone is a resonance of multiple factors - from the massive influx of institutional funds to the catalysis of the macroeconomic environment, from the progress of the technical ecosystem to the shift in market sentiment.

Breaking through the $100,000 mark: Core driving factors

Continuous entry of institutional and government funds

By 2025, the demand for Bitcoin allocation from institutional investors and government agencies has significantly increased. The inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF hit a historical high, with a net inflow exceeding $3 billion in just one week at the end of April. Companies in Japan like Metaplanet and in India like Jetking have announced plans to increase their holdings, further boosting market demand. Of particular note is the US government’s enactment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, authorizing multiple states to include Bitcoin in their financial reserves, with relevant bills in New Hampshire and Texas already in the implementation phase.

These actions not only strengthen market confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin but also accelerate its transition from a ‘speculative asset’ to a ‘strategic reserve asset’.

Macroeconomic environment and risk aversion demand

Global inflation pressure and loose monetary policies continue to drive funds into inflation-resistant assets. In the first quarter of 2025, the global M2 money supply increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching a historical high, prompting investors to seek Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ to hedge against the risk of fiat currency depreciation. In addition, the Fed’s rate cut expectations are rising (CME FedWatch tool shows a 48.9% probability of a rate cut in September), coupled with macroeconomic positives such as easing US-China trade tensions, further stimulating market risk appetite.

Technological upgrades and ecosystem maturity

The technological advancement of the Bitcoin network has significantly improved its usability. The widespread adoption of the Lightning Network will reduce transaction costs to near zero, while the optimization of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions (such as Arbitrum) indirectly enhances the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a fundamental store of value asset. In addition, the explosive growth in the field of Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization has injected new liquidity into the crypto economy, indirectly supporting Bitcoin price.

Market Sentiment and On-Chain Data: Bullish Signals Strengthened

Whale Accumulation and On-Chain Metrics

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales (addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC) accumulated over 80,000 BTC before the price breakthrough, increasing their holdings by 0.61%. At the same time, the realized profit/loss ratio (RPLR) has risen above 1.0, indicating that there is no large-scale panic selling in the market, with 88% of BTC supply still in a profitable state.

Derivatives market and institutional confidence

CME Bitcoin futures open interest hits a new high, with a 6.5% premium for two-month futures, indicating institutional investors’ continued long-term bullish bets. Publicly listed companies like MicroStrategy are increasing their BTC holdings at an average price of $92,700, further validating market acceptance of the ‘scarcity narrative’.

Technical analysis and short-term volatility risk

Despite the long-term bullish trend, short-term technical indicators suggest the possibility of a pullback:

• Resistance and support levels: After breaking through $100,000, Bitcoin needs to hold above $101,000 to challenge the historical high of $109,225; if it falls below the support level of $93,780, it may retrace to the $88,000 range.
• Technical indicator signal: The MACD line shows a weakening bullish momentum, and the Bollinger Bands contraction indicates that the volatility may increase.

However, on-chain fundamentals (such as MVRV ratio returning to long-term average) indicate that the current market is more inclined to consolidation rather than a crash.

Future Outlook: Halving Cycles and Long-Term Value

Delayed release of halving effect

Historically, the 12-18 months following the Bitcoin halving event are usually accompanied by a price surge. The halving effect in 2024 may manifest in the second half of 2025, with Standard Chartered Bank predicting a year-end target price of up to $200,000.

Institutionalization and mainstreaming trend

With the continuous inflow of ETF funds (such as the scale of BlackRock IBIT fund exceeding its gold ETF), Bitcoin’s institutional holdings are expected to exceed 10%, driving its further integration into the traditional financial system.

RWA and Global Policy Support

The ‘RWA Development Strategy Plan’ issued by the U.S. government prioritizes tokenizing physical assets, with the demand for Bitcoin as underlying collateral assets potentially surging. At the same time, the improvement of regulatory frameworks in Hong Kong, the EU, and other regions has provided a more stable development environment for the market.

Conclusion

Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 is not only a victory in price, but also a consolidation of its status as ‘digital gold’. In the future, the triple drive of institutional allocation, technological iteration, and macro environment may continue to increase its value. Despite inevitable short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin’s scarcity, decentralized nature, and global attributes still make it a core choice for long-term investors to hedge against economic uncertainty.