Crypto Market Q3 Macro Research Report: Selective Bull Run Arrives, Institutions Adopt to Drive Structural Market Explosion

1. The macro turning point has arrived: the resonance of regulatory warming and policy protection.

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, the macro landscape has quietly changed. The policy environment that once pushed digital assets to the margins is now transforming into an institutional driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending a two-year interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulative track, and the global acceleration of the construction of a "accommodative framework" for encryption regulation, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

Firstly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning window. Although the Federal Reserve still emphasizes "data dependence" at the official level, the market has long reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025. The divergence between the lagging dot plot and the leading expectations of the futures market is increasingly widening. The government's continued pressure on the Fed further politicizes monetary policy tools, indicating that U.S. real interest rates will gradually slide from high levels between the second half of 2025 and 2026. This expectation gap opens an upward channel for risk assets, especially the valuation of digital assets. More importantly, as the current Fed chair is marginalized in political games, and a "more compliant Fed chair" is expected to emerge, easing is not only a forecast but may also become a policy reality.

At the same time, efforts on the fiscal side are also unfolding synchronously. The fiscal expansion represented by the "Great American Rescue Plan" is bringing about an unprecedented capital release effect. The government is making significant investments in areas such as manufacturing repatriation, AI infrastructure, and energy independence, effectively creating a "capital flood channel" that spans both traditional industries and emerging technology sectors. This not only reshapes the structure of the dollar's internal circulation but also indirectly strengthens the marginal demand for digital asset classes—especially against the backdrop of capital seeking high-risk premiums. Concurrently, the U.S. Treasury is also adopting a more aggressive strategy regarding national debt issuance, sending signals of "not fearing debt expansion," making "printing money for growth" once again a consensus on Wall Street.

The fundamental shift in policy signals is more reflected in the changes to the regulatory structure. As we enter 2025, the SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change. The official approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first time that U.S. regulators have recognized that digital assets with yield structures can enter the traditional financial system; meanwhile, the promotion of the Solana ETF has even provided Solana, once regarded as a "high Beta speculative chain," with a historical opportunity for institutional absorption. More importantly, the SEC has begun to establish a unified standard for simplifying the approval of token ETFs, intending to build a replicable and scalable compliance financial product channel. This represents an essential shift in regulatory logic from "firewalls" to "pipeline engineering," with crypto assets being incorporated into financial infrastructure planning for the first time.

This change in regulatory thinking is not unique to the United States. The race for compliance in Asia is heating up, particularly in financial hubs such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE, which are vying for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. Circle has applied for a license in the United States, and Tether is also establishing a Hong Kong dollar-pegged coin in Hong Kong. Chinese giants like JD.com and Ant Group have also applied for qualifications related to stablecoins, indicating that the trend of integration between sovereign capital and internet giants has begun. This means that in the future, stablecoins will no longer be just trading tools; they will become part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies. Behind this is a systemic demand for on-chain liquidity, security, and infrastructure assets.

In addition, there are already signs of a recovery in the risk appetite of traditional financial markets. The S&P 500 reached a new historical high in June, tech stocks and emerging assets rebounded in sync, the IPO market is warming up, and user activity on platforms like Robinhood has increased, all signaling that risk capital is flowing back. This round of inflow is no longer solely focused on AI and biotechnology but is beginning to reassess blockchain, crypto finance, and on-chain structured yield assets. This change in capital behavior is more honest than narratives and more forward-looking than policies.

As monetary policy enters a phase of easing, fiscal policy is fully relaxed, the regulatory structure shifts to a "supportive approach to regulation", and overall risk appetite improves, the overall environment for encryption assets has long since escaped the predicament of late 2022. Under this dual drive of policies and the market, it is not difficult to draw a conclusion: the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by sentiment but rather a process of value reassessment driven by the system. It is not that Bitcoin is about to take off; rather, the global capital market has begun to "pay a premium for certain assets" again, and the spring of the crypto market is returning in a more gentle but stronger manner.

2. Structural Turnover: Enterprises and Institutions are Leading the Next Bull Run

The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is no longer the drastic fluctuations in price, but rather the deep-seated logic that chips are quietly shifting from retail and short-term funds into the hands of long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and reconstruction, the participant structure of the crypto market is undergoing a historic "reshuffle": users centered around speculation are gradually being marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aiming for allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The performance of Bitcoin has already explained everything. Although the price trend has been calm, its circulating chips are accelerating the "lock-up" process. According to data tracking from multiple institutions, the number of Bitcoins purchased by listed companies in the past three quarters has surpassed the net buying scale of ETFs during the same period. Some technology companies and certain traditional energy and software enterprises are viewing Bitcoin as a "strategic cash alternative" rather than a short-term asset allocation tool. Behind this behavior pattern is a deep understanding of the expectations of global currency devaluation, as well as a proactive response to the incentive structures of products like ETFs. Compared to ETFs, companies buying spot Bitcoin directly have more flexibility and voting rights, and are less susceptible to market sentiment, possessing stronger holding resilience.

At the same time, financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for the accelerated inflow of institutional funds. The approval of Ethereum staking ETFs not only expands the boundaries of compliant products but also signifies that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The anticipated approval of Solana spot ETFs further opens up the imagination; once the staking yield mechanism is packaged and absorbed by ETFs, it will fundamentally change traditional asset managers' perception of crypto assets as "yieldless and purely volatile," and will also prompt institutions to shift from risk hedging to yield allocation. In addition, certain large crypto funds are applying to convert into ETF forms, marking that the "barrier" between traditional fund management mechanisms and blockchain asset management mechanisms is being broken.

More importantly, companies are directly participating in the on-chain financial market, breaking the isolation structure between traditional "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. Some companies are directly increasing their holdings of ETH in a private placement manner, while others are spending huge amounts on acquisitions of Solana ecological projects and platform stock buybacks, representing that companies are actively involved in building a new generation of encryption financial ecology. This is no longer the logic of venture capital participating in startup projects in the past, but rather a capital injection with the characteristics of "industrial mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout," aimed at locking in the core asset rights and revenue distribution rights of new financial infrastructure. The market effects brought about by this behavior are long-tail, not only stabilizing market sentiment but also enhancing the valuation anchoring ability of underlying protocols.

In the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, traditional finance is also actively positioning itself. The open interest for Solana futures on CME reached a historic high of 1.75 million contracts, and the monthly trading volume of XRP futures also surpassed $500 million for the first time, indicating that traditional trading institutions have incorporated crypto assets into their strategic models. The driving force behind this is the continuous entry of hedge funds, structured product providers, and multi-strategy CTA funds—these players are not pursuing short-term windfalls but are based on volatility arbitrage, capital structure games, and quantitative factor model operations, which will fundamentally enhance the "liquidity density" and "market depth" of the market.

From the perspective of structural turnover, the significant decline in the activity of retail investors and short-term players further reinforces the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decrease, the activity of early whale wallets is declining, and on-chain search and wallet interaction data tend to stabilize, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period." Although the price performance during this stage is relatively flat, historical experience suggests that it is precisely during such a quiet period that the biggest market trends often emerge. In other words, the chips are no longer in the hands of retail investors, and institutions are quietly "building their positions."

It is also important to note that the "productization capabilities" of financial institutions are rapidly being implemented. From traditional financial giants to emerging retail financial platforms, all are expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. This not only enables crypto assets to truly achieve "usability within the fiat currency system," but also provides them with richer financial attributes. In the future, BTC and ETH may no longer be just "volatile digital assets," but will become a "configurable asset class"—complete with a derivatives market, payment scenarios, yield structures, and credit ratings.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is not a simple rotation of positions, but a deep unfolding of the "financialization" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of the value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market are no longer the "quick money tribe" driven by emotions and hot topics, but institutions and enterprises with medium to long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable funding structures. A truly institutionalized and structured bull run is quietly brewing; it will not be ostentatious or fervent, but it will be more solid, more enduring, and more thorough.

3. The New Era of Shanzhai Season: From General Surge to "Selective Bull Run"

When people mention "Shanzhai Season", what often comes to mind is the widespread, frenzied uptrend of 2021. However, by 2025, the evolutionary trajectory of the market has quietly changed, and the logic of "altcoin rise = everyone takes off" no longer holds. The current "Shanzhai Season" is entering a brand new phase: the broad uptrend is gone, replaced by a "selective bull market" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yield, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the gradual maturation of the crypto market, and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

From a structural signal perspective, the chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of consolidation. The ETH/BTC pair has experienced a strong rebound for the first time after several weeks of decline, with whale addresses accumulating millions of ETH in a very short period. Large on-chain transactions have occurred frequently, indicating that major funds have begun to reprice first-tier assets such as Ethereum. Meanwhile, retail sentiment remains low, with search indices and wallet creation volumes not showing significant recovery yet, which instead creates an ideal "low-interference" environment for the next market cycle: no overheating sentiment, no retail explosion, making it easier for institutional rhythms to dominate the market. Historically, it is often during such market periods of "seemingly rising but not rising, seemingly stable but not stable" that the biggest trend opportunities are born.

However, unlike previous years, this time the altcoin market will not be "flying together," but rather "each flying on its own." ETF applications have become the anchor point of the new round of thematic structure. In particular, the Solana spot ETF is already seen as the next "market consensus event." From the launch of Ethereum staking ETFs to whether staking yields on the Solana chain will be included in the ETF dividend structure, investors have begun to layout around staking assets, and the price performance of governance tokens like JTO and MNDE has also started to show independent market trends. It can be anticipated that in this new narrative cycle, the performance of assets will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is real income distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation," no longer driven by a single market trend lifting all tokens.